A | NBA这个休赛期最炸裂的一笔操作，不是某位超巨改换门庭，而是克利夫兰骑士用一连串精密到极致的薪资运作，硬生生从卫冕冠军掘金手里“拆”走了23岁的锋线新星沃特森。4年8800万美元，年均2200万，最后一年带球员选项，还附加7.5%的交易保证金——这份合同的结构，几乎是为沃特森量身定制的“诚意书”。 而真正把这笔交易从设想变成现实的，是37岁的哈登。 The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Eastern Theater Command lambasted the US for "collusion and provocations" on 8 July, stressing that its troops are on high alert and are ready to enhance combat preparedness to safeguard China's national sovereignty, security, and peace. It also accused the US of encouraging Taiwan's secessionist sentiment.,"There are three major channels to deliver political signals to Taipei," explained Dr. Chang Ching, a research fellow from the Taiwan-based Society for Strategic Studies and a lead military expert on the People's Liberation Army and regional security in Taiwan. "They are spokespersons of Beijing’s Foreign Ministry, Taiwan Affairs Office and the Defense Ministry. It is relatively unusual to direct a PLA spokesman to deliver such political signals.",Dr. Chang suggests that the PLA's statement appears to be a new psychological operation aimed at the US and Taiwan. The military expert has drawn attention to the fact that "for any sophisticated and well organized military maneuvers, it is always necessary to have proper prior preparation." As such, he suggested that the exercises and the US visit are not causally linked.,"The possibility for the People’s Liberation Army to conduct an improvised military exercise simply reacting to any United States political figure visiting Taiwan is extremely low," the professor argued. "The visit of the US Senator Rick Scott to Taiwan, the premeditated military [exercises] in airspace and waters around Taiwan and the PLA routine press conference just happened on the same day. And a smart PLA spokesman grabbed the chance to exercise his psychological warfare skill and achieve the perception of warfare effects.",China's Military Ready to Prevent Attempts to Achieve ‘Taiwan Independence’17:00 GMT,Washington's Unbalanced China Strategy,The US has been heating up the Taiwan Starits recently. In October 2021, a US special-operations unit and a contingent of Marines were discovered secretly operating in Taiwan for about a year to train military forces. Furthermore, Washington has doubled its unofficial military presence on the island between 31 December 2020 and 30 September 2021, according to the Pentagon's Defense Manpower Data Center. Beijing issued warnings to Washington over the reports.,Washington also upped the ante against China in late February by sending a delegation of former senior defense and security officials to meet Taiwan's president and defense minister, despite Beijing blasting the move as a violation of the China’s sovereignty.,Over the past few months, the Biden administration has likewise ramped up its rhetoric over Taiwan with President Joe Biden even going so far as to repeatedly pledge to "defend" the island from China. Beijing harshly criticized Biden's statements, even though the White House walked the president’s remarks back.,As the Beijing-based daily Global Times commented on the matter, "Biden’s remarks on 'intervening militarily' in the Taiwan question are not a gaffe but signal [the] hollowing out [of Beijing’s] One China policy." In accordance with the One China Policy, Taiwan is part of the People's Republic of China (PRC). However, Washington has long maintained relations with the island, even though it severed official diplomatic ties with Taipei in 1979.,"There are many political commentators and military analysts expecting the worst-case scenario will emerge sooner or later," said Dr. Chang, referring to the possibility of a US-China military standoff over Taiwan. "However, as long as all parties involved in such a circumstance with high uncertainties and tensions are sensible enough, the hope for peaceful resolution of the cross-strait animosities will not totally diminish though many observers will think otherwise.",Biden's 'Strategic Confusion': Why China Won't Fall Into US Traps in Taiwan & Indo-Pacific24 May, 15:08 GMT,The professor believes that as for now, the possibility of any significant Sino-US conflict is quite unlikely. While the differences between Washington and Beijing do exist, "the mutual communication channel and crisis prevention mechanism is also functional," according to the expert.,Dr. Chang went on to claim that the Biden administration's provocative moves with regard to Taiwan could be explained by simmering divisions within the White House.,"Many indications of internal conflicts emerged within his national security and foreign policy team members," he said. "Some key members still keep strong ambition to exercise the salami-slicing tactics on [the] Taiwan issue for acquiring leverage towards Beijing. On the other hand, there are other members who are more willing to seek the possibility for mutual cooperation with their counterparts in Beijing and they will exercise a different set of policies towards Taipei and Beijing accordingly.",As a result, the US administration's strategy remains inconsistent, with Biden’s government being "an orchestra with no competent conductor to coordinate his foreign and security policies.",However, Washington's unbalanced approach comes at the expense of the Taiwanese inhabitants. The present administration's negligence to the peace and stability of the region stems from the fact that "the criteria of supporting Taiwan is to serve the United States national interests, not Taiwan’s welfare," according to the professor.,"Of course, in some cases, there are mutually beneficial solutions and arrangements in US-Taiwan relations," he said. "Nonetheless, US interests are always the concern with higher priority for the leaders in Washington."。他手里原本攥着4230万美元的球员选项，完全可以一签了事，但他没有。哈登选择降薪续约，新合同年薪预计落在2500万至3200万之间，每年直接让利超过1200万。这笔钱，最终变成了沃特森加盟克利夫兰的薪资空间。 为什么骑士如此执着于一个场均14.6分的年轻人？答案藏在去年东部决赛里。面对尼克斯的锋线群，骑士的三号位被反复针对，攻防两端全面失血。米切尔和莫布利锁定顶薪，阿伦镇守内线，后场有哈登梳理进攻，唯独缺少一个能跑能防、能把空位三分投进的侧翼。
B | 沃特森恰恰是联盟当下最稀缺的类型——2米03的身高，能从1号位换防到4号位，三分命中率41.1%，场均还能送出1.1次盖帽。这种体型配机动性，放在自由市场上，至少五支球队排队等着递合同。 掘金并非不想留人。他们开出了5年7000万的报价，年均1400万，但在沃特森团队眼里，这个数字严重低估了他的市场价值。更关键的是，掘金刚刚匹配了雷霆给斯潘塞·琼斯的邀请合同，薪资已经顶到第二土豪线。如果强行给沃特森涨到年均2200万，奢侈税将直奔2亿美元。
C | 对一支围绕约基奇建队、争冠窗口期有限的球队来说，这笔账怎么算都不划算。
D | 于是掘金选择了变现。
E | 他们从这笔先签后换交易中拿回了骑士2031年的无保护首轮签，外加国王2032年的次轮签。
F | 无保护三个字的分量极重——这意味着五年后如果骑士因为哈登退役、米切尔老化而跌入乐透区，掘金将白捡一个高顺位新秀。这是一场关于时间维度的对赌：掘金赌未来，骑士赌现在。 骑士的筹码不止是选秀权。为了让薪资空间腾出来，管理层在过去一周连续做了多笔操作。先把施罗德送往黄蜂换回特雷·曼恩，省下约680万美元；接着把斯特鲁斯摆上货架，这位上季场均11.2分、三分命中率40.2%的射手，手里握着1666万的到期合同。骑士从7月就开始兜售，先后接触过公牛和篮网，但对方一听要接最后一年的高薪，扭头就走。直到快船入局，用交易特例直接吃下这份合同，整笔账才算彻底平掉。 快船在这笔五方交易中几乎没付出核心资产，仅靠薪资空间就拿到了一位有硬仗基因的成熟射手。
G | 唯一的隐患在斯特鲁斯的左脚——上季他因琼斯骨折只打了12场常规赛，季后赛带伤复出。快船医疗组的评估报告，将直接决定这笔交易最终的成色。 当交易正式官宣时，外界才发现它已经扩展成五方九人的大交易。骑士最终入账沃特森和惠特摩尔两名锋线，快船拿到斯特鲁斯，掘金收下2031年无保护首轮、国王2032年次轮和里斯，奇才得到曼恩和次轮签，黄蜂得到施罗德。
H | 由于骑士和掘金都参与了先签后换，两队被第一土豪线硬帽锁死。
I | 骑士在完成哈登续约前，距离硬帽还剩约2900万美元空间——这2900万，恰好是留给哈登的。
J | 哈登的牺牲，远超外界的想象。一个11届全明星、前MVP，在职业生涯尾巴上做出降薪4000万的决定，图的就是那座迟迟未到手的总冠军奖杯。
K | 他深知，骑士管理层整个夏天的操作逻辑，本质上是在和时间赛跑。
L | 米切尔和莫布利的顶薪合同已经生效，阿伦的续约谈判也即将启动，未来几年球队的薪资空间只会越来越紧。如果这个窗口期拿不下冠军，等哈登老去、新人磨合失败，骑士将同时失去现在和未来。 ESPN给骑士打了B级，给掘金打了D级。不少美国记者认为掘金是最大输家，但换个角度看，掘金管理层只是选择了一条更稳妥的路。约基奇的合同窗口就剩几年，硬留沃特森会让后续操作空间彻底焊死，还不如换回一个远端首轮给未来留种子。掘金转头就去接触德罗赞，说明他们根本没打算躺平。 骑士球迷有理由兴奋，但别高兴太早。沃特森功能单一的问题客观存在，他能靠身体天赋在常规赛冲击篮筐，可到了总决赛级别的肉搏战，能否扛住对手王牌锋线的强吃，依然是个问号。更现实的是，骑士总薪资已经顶到硬帽，后续连一笔像样的补强都做不了。轮换深度被锁死，一旦主力遭遇伤病，替补席上能指望的名字屈指可数。 纸面实力上，哈登、米切尔、沃特森、莫布利、阿伦这套首发，足以叫板尼克斯和76人。但篮球从来不是纸面游戏。米切尔和莫布利各自背着5010万的顶薪，不兑现就毫无意义；沃特森从丹佛到克利夫兰，球权只会更少，他需要证明自己不持球也能影响比赛；哈登的膝盖和体能要撑过82场常规赛加季后赛；莫布利能否把防守覆盖面积转化为稳定输出，都是变数。 掘金拿着2031年的首轮签看向远方，快船拿着斯特鲁斯看向他的左脚康复报告，骑士拿着沃特森看向当下。三支球队在同一张交易单上签了字，赌的是完全不同的时间维度。骑士把未来五年的选秀资产押在了哈登巅峰尾巴的这两三年，赌赢了就是队史第二座总冠军奖杯，赌输了就是2031年那个无保护首轮变成乐透区高顺位白白送给丹佛。 哈登降薪1200万，换来的是一个23岁的锋线。这笔买卖对当下的克利夫兰绝对划算，但对未来五年的骑士而言，答案要等到2031年才能真正揭晓。
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